Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 3.267884 3.932456 4.676209 5.567076 6.601777 7.762183 9.158429
2025-04-06 2.317834 3.160143 4.204633 5.581797 7.334919 9.475917 12.270171
2025-04-13 1.715677 2.608232 3.816770 5.543195 7.911061 11.005120 15.306287
2025-04-20 1.419101 2.366877 3.748402 5.856011 8.924977 13.154407 19.328202
2025-04-27 1.177098 2.137262 3.633339 6.052706 9.764180 15.117886 23.262326
2025-05-04 1.014879 1.989585 3.601359 6.344505 10.746364 17.347449 27.744597
2025-05-11 0.831598 1.761673 3.393734 6.314534 11.210357 18.830271 31.233722
2025-05-18 0.658202 1.509265 3.094903 6.077860 11.296036 19.715191 33.858692
2025-05-25 0.515577 1.280499 2.793248 5.781769 11.230043 20.327908 36.074677
2025-06-01 0.432197 1.153266 2.656824 5.757076 11.614249 21.686587 39.566604
2025-06-08 0.369699 1.056508 2.562077 5.792855 12.100623 23.242867 43.480886
2025-06-15 0.314286 0.962149 2.454619 5.785028 12.497933 24.665674 47.255347
2025-06-22 0.249253 0.827445 2.238520 5.531750 12.414046 25.255670 49.685609
2025-06-29 0.211116 0.753511 2.146404 5.526759 12.814589 26.753605 53.825804
2025-07-06 0.177168 0.681059 2.043499 5.481582 13.125632 28.105080 57.790629
2025-07-13 0.164686 0.670399 2.092601 5.788821 14.198254 30.977257 64.728086
2025-07-20 0.148595 0.643280 2.093858 5.982622 15.045542 33.469940 71.105239
2025-07-27 0.137790 0.630910 2.132481 6.271148 16.124509 36.489057 78.653255
2025-08-03 0.117605 0.578096 2.048086 6.241357 16.490046 38.102891 83.592747
2025-08-10 0.094844 0.506379 1.893303 6.007030 16.362349 38.697136 86.571928
2025-08-17 0.074791 0.436376 1.726910 5.713933 16.061132 38.899693 88.773688
2025-08-24 0.063898 0.401189 1.662583 5.689487 16.397444 40.468330 93.809385
2025-08-31 0.055679 0.374790 1.621599 5.724899 16.882978 42.388804 99.669225